If you’re a business leader like me, you’re probably wondering: When the heck are things going to get back to normal? And what will “normal” look like for your business in a world where COVID-19 still exists? In addition to needing to know for our company, my phone has been ringing off the hook from leaders at F1000 companies “what do we need to know?”
To find the answers to these important and timely COVID-19 questions, I spoke with public health expert Dr. Vin Gupta, MD, who is a critical care pulmonologist and a Senior Principal for Health at Amazon. In addition to advising Amazon, Gupta has been helping several Fortune 100 companies with their COVID-19 response during these turbulent two years.
Dr. Gupta took some time from his busy schedule to advise our team on the current state of COVID-19 (specifically Omicron), what the pandemic will look like in a few months, and what all of our businesses needed to know for the future. I thought I would share his thoughts in order to help other business leaders and owners as they contemplate a return to their offices.
Where We Are Now
Gupta says, “We are entering a different phase of the crisis.” Right now, the current surge makes COVID-19 seem endless. Case rates are rising, sometimes exponentially in parts of the United States and there have been breakthrough infections among people who have even had booster shots.
However, while the pandemic may look grim now, the context is different. According to the CDC, more than 60% of Americans have been fully vaccinated. While hospitals are strained, most of the infected patients are unvaccinated. Far fewer vaccinated people have been hospitalized.
As for the vaccine, Gupta said, “The COVID-19 vaccines are extremely effective at protecting against severe illness, which is the only barometer of success that matters. Gupta explained that “excellent vaccines against contagious respiratory viruses are—at their best—able to reduce the risk of severe pneumonia; they are not able to prevent a positive test or mild symptoms.” This rationale underpins why people get flu shots every year and why the COVID-19 vaccines remain vitally important to any individual’s health.
Where We Are Heading
While it may seem we’re living in a crisis now, Gupta said, “We’re nearing the end of the worst of it—rapidly transitioning towards a more manageable endemic state.” In about two months from now, the pandemic will look very different. Infection numbers and death levels will come down significantly, as they have in other countries like South Africa, which first experienced the Omicron variant. The healthcare system will move from an untenable situation to a very manageable one. “It may seem impossible to envision good things now,” Gupta said; “however, by the end of February or early March, the pandemic will change to a more manageable problem.”
Unfortunately, COVID-19 won’t be gone. Gupta said, “Expect COVID-19 to change into a seasonal or recurring virus.” This means a possible seasonal surge in Fall ‘22 and Winter ‘23 that will likely be worse than a bad flu season. Fortunately, it will not be like what we’ve experienced the past two winters. The good news is that these cycles will be more manageable for hospitals, health professionals, and your business and employees, as far fewer people will be getting infected or seriously ill.
What Businesses Need to Know Going Forward
So what about returning to the office? Gupta told me, “Businesses could expect a gradual return to offices by the end of February or early March.” However, he suggested going hybrid first, rather than an abrupt switch from work-from-home to work-in-office.
“Any 100% in-office return will be most successful if businesses choose April 1st or later as the target date,” Gupta added. He also advised me before setting any dates, I communicate clearly with my employees about expectations, be flexible with workers about return dates, and make accommodations to the needs of people with higher risk.
“The biggest concern for employees,” Gupta told me, “will be their mental health.” He told me everyone has been living with stress and fear during the pandemic. A sudden return to the office could cause even more anxiety for employees, who have felt comfortable and safe at home. A gradual return instead will give employees time to adjust and for leaders and managers to be ready to accommodate them.
Don’t give up, not at all. Dr. Gupta sees “hope and renewal” going forward. While COVID-19 isn’t going away, he believes the worst will be over soon. Moreover, a silver lining from the crisis is that our health and mental health systems have improved so that employees and businesses will be able to live with the virus in the future.
